DALLAS, April 1, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index decreased by 0.7 percent in January to a level of 117.2. January's reading is 19 points, or 20 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 118.4 points for all of 2018, 0.1 points above the index average for 2017. December's index reading was 118.0.

Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index fell in January by 0.7 percent, down for the third consecutive month. The index is now down for six out of the past eight months. Over the year ending in January, the Michigan index is down by 1.1 percent. We expect Michigan to show moderate-to-weak gross state product growth for 2018 and only weak growth for 2019. In January, four out of nine index components were positive. They were nonfarm payrolls, house prices, industrial electricity demand and state sales tax revenues. Negatives for January were unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, light vehicle production, total state trade and hotel occupancy. The Michigan economy is enduring creative-destruction in the auto sector. Older auto plants for less popular gasoline-powered products are closing, while new facilities are planned for next-generation electric vehicles. We expect the churn in the auto industry to result in a net reduction in workers required per vehicle assembled. A key motivator for the auto industry is a significant decrease in the hands-on assembly time for electric vehicles. This will likely have negative consequences for Michigan's labor market even as the auto industry remains healthy overall. Beyond the auto sector, Michigan will feel the drag from a cooler U.S. economy and cooler global conditions this year.

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks in Michigan, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Michigan and Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank