DALLAS, May 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index decreased in March to 139.9. March's index reading was 44 points, or 46 percent, above the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 139.1 points for all of 2019, 3.8 points above the average for 2018. February's index reading was revised to 142.9.
Our state economic activity indexes are beginning to show the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on state economies in this edition which is based on data from March. The Texas Economic Activity Index fell by 2.1 percent in March, breaking a string of six consecutive monthly gains. We expect the Texas Index and all of our other state indexes to show further significant deterioration when the April data is available next month. In March, only two of the nine index components were positive for the month. They were house prices and state sales tax revenues. The six negative components were unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, industrial electricity demand, drilling rig count, total state trade and hotel occupancy. The nonfarm employment sub-index was unchanged for the month. Through April, the combination of the state's social mitigation policies and national stay-at-home guidance resulted in a huge loss of revenue for many businesses which forced business closures and layoffs. The unemployment rate for Texas increased from an already elevated 5.1 percent in March, to 12.8 percent in April. The April Texas Index data will be consistent with this historically high unemployment rate. Through May, the state began to roll back social mitigation policies. We expect to see improvement in the May data, but not all shuttered businesses will re-open and not all furloughed employees will be called back to work.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in Texas, strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking center network throughout Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank
