DALLAS, Jan. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Comerica Bank's chief economist, David Littmann, predicts continued growth in the Texas economy in 2005, due to the latest readings of Comerica's Advance Economic Barometer and Texas Expansion Watch Index.

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Comerica's Advance Economic Barometer (AEB), compiled by Littmann, registered 3.7 in third quarter 2004, down 0.3 points from a second quarter 2004 level of 4.0, and down 0.9 from 4.6 in the third quarter a year ago.

The Texas Expansion Watch Index (TEWI) tracks inflation-adjusted movements in the Texas economy. This index stood at 3.8 in the second quarter, 2004. TEWI reached a revised low of -2.8 in the first quarter 2002, but has sustained positive direction foreshadowed by AEB movements since mid-year 2002.

Synopsis: "The Texas leading indicator, AEB, remains at levels similar to a decade ago, calling for good growth in 2005," according to Littmann. "Most factors that fuel the Texas economy are doing well, and industries tied to heretofore sluggish sectors are now improving."

Changes in the state economy are proxied by Comerica Bank's Texas Expansion Watch Index, whose components include Texas personal income, retail sales, and employment. Since 1988, AEB readings below zero have accurately foretold recession in the Texas economy within 12 months. Such warnings were signaled in the second and third quarters 1989; the Texas economy peaked in the final quarter of 1989, decelerated dramatically through the first quarter of 1991 and experienced outright year-over-year contraction by second quarter 1991.

Most recently, AEB turned negative in the third quarter 2000, correctly warning of year-over-year contraction in 2001's second half. AEB has been signaling more vigorous expansion ahead for Texas since mid-2001.

For 25 years, David Littmann has served on a panel of more than 50 economists which contributes monthly to Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a newsletter published by Aspen Publishers of New York. Founded by Robert Eggert and now edited by Randell E. Moore, the newsletter is the "gold standard" for monthly macroeconomic forecasts and has been utilized by policy makers and business leaders at the highest level for nearly three decades. In February 2004, Littmann was recognized with the 2003 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy; sponsored by the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, the award is one of the most prestigious and long-standing awards in the profession. Littmann has been with Comerica since 1970 and is the author of other economic barometers and indexes.

The Texas Division of Comerica Bank includes 53 full-service branch offices in the key Texas markets of Dallas, Houston and Austin. Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA) , a financial services company strategically aligned into the Business Bank, Small Business Banking & Personal Financial Services, and Wealth & Institutional Management. Comerica focuses on relationships and helping businesses and people be successful. Comerica Incorporated reported total assets of $53 billion at September 30, 2004. To receive e-mail alerts of breaking Comerica news, go to http://www.comerica.com/newsalerts .

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Source: Comerica Bank

CONTACT: David L. Littmann, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist of
Comerica Bank, +1-313-222-7241, +1-800-895-7708, or Sally Crocker of Comerica
Bank-Texas Division, +1-214-969-6400, sbcrocker@comerica.com

Web site: http://www.comerica.com/

NOTE TO EDITORS: Details and history on the Advance Economic Barometer, and its predictive relationship with the Texas Expansion Watch Index, can be obtained by contacting David Littmann.