DALLAS, Nov. 18, 2010 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Comerica Bank Chief Economist Dana Johnson today unveiled a new monthly economic index that tracks current trends in the Texas economy, the Comerica Texas Economic Activity Index. The results of the inaugural Comerica Texas Economic Activity Index show a one point increase in the month of September, to a score of 92. This score is up six points from its level one year ago and year-to-date, the index has averaged three points above the average for all of 2009.
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"The sideways pattern traced out by our Index since April documents that the upturn in the Texas economy has slowed in a manner broadly similar to the national recovery," said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "Looking ahead, I expect the Texas economy will outperform the nation as it has done for the past five years, accelerating faster than the national economy over the balance of 2010 and into 2011. If that pattern emerges, our Texas Economic Activity Index should make an upside breakout in upcoming months."
The Texas Economic Activity Index, to be published monthly and available free online, is calculated from nine equally weighted, seasonally-adjusted indicators of economic activity in Texas. These indicators reflect activity in the energy, manufacturing, travel, and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays.
In developing this new index for the Lone Star State, Johnson has computed Comerica Texas Economic Activity Index levels going back to 1997. Over the 13 year history, the index closely parallels movements in the annual real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
"Our new Comerica Texas Index should be a valuable tool for monitoring emerging trends in economic activity in Texas," said Johnson. "This index will provide a monthly coincident measure of economic activity that fills in the long gaps between the annual releases of real GDP data for the state."
"We're very proud of Dana Johnson's work as our chief economist, and his new Texas index should be yet another indispensable tool for our clients, businesses, public policy leaders and the media," said J. Patrick "Pat" Faubion, Comerica Bank's Texas Market President.
About the Comerica Texas Economic Activity Index
Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index equally weights nine seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real state economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the energy, manufacturing, travel, and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays.
More specifically, energy activity is measured by the Baker Hughes rig count. Manufacturing is tracked using the manufacturing component of the Dallas Fed's Texas Industrial Production (IP) Index. The Index utilizes three measures of travel activity: (1) state hotel occupancy rates, (2) air traffic data collected from the state's four major metro airport systems and (3) taxed gallons of retail gasoline sales, which serves as a proxy for vehicle miles travelled within the state. Total exports reflect state-level trade activity. Job growth is represented by state non-farm payrolls. Consumer outlays are expressed in terms of retail and auto sales tax revenues.
All variables comprising the Texas Economic Activity Index are collected on a monthly basis, which introduces varying degrees of volatility to the Index levels on a month-to-month basis. To adjust for volatility and better highlight the underlying trends in the Texas economy, the Index is expressed as a three-month moving average. The index is benchmarked so that 2008 equals the score of 100.
The driving purpose of the Index's methodology is to reflect overall movement in the Texas economy, broadly consistent with state real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance. Because state real GDP is published only on an annual basis, the Comerica Texas Economic Activity Index serves as an intervening measure of activity.
To receive the Comerica Texas Economic Activity Index directly to your inbox, subscribe at www.comerica.com/econsubscribe.
About Comerica
Comerica Bank is the commercial banking subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest banking company headquartered in Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth & Institutional Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Dallas, Houston and Austin, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $55.0 billion at September 30, 2010. To receive e-mail alerts of breaking Comerica news, go to http://www.comerica.com/newsalerts.
SOURCE Comerica Bank
