DALLAS, Oct. 4, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index fell one point in July, to a level of 101.  July's reading is three points below the 104 average for all of 2010, and seven percent above the index cyclical low.  Year-to-date the index has averaged 103.  

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"The California economy continues to struggle for traction," said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "Consumer spending remains fundamentally constrained by a weak housing market and a downshift in global macroeconomic expectations is keeping hiring tentative. With the odds of a U.S. recession before the end of 2012 now near 50 percent, the California economy is on the bubble. The steady decline in our California index over the last five months is an ominous sign. A resurgent Silicon Valley remains a bright spot for the state economy but some high-tech industries are vulnerable to cooler markets and new restraints to government spending."

The California Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity.  These indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, travel and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays.  The Index levels represent a three-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility.  The Index is benchmarked so that 2008 equals 100.  

Comerica Bank, with 104 banking centers in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa Cruz/Monterey, and the Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA).  Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships and helping businesses and people be successful.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank