DALLAS, Oct. 6, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index was flat in July, unchanged at a level of 99. June's reading is 16 points, or 19 percent, above the index cyclical low of 83.  Year-to-date the index has averaged 96, six points above the average for all of 2010.  

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"Texas is a growth leader for the U.S. economy, with strong high tech and energy sectors and strong demographic growth," said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "However, the recent downshift in global macroeconomic expectations is a warning sign for Texas, and lower energy prices could sap the strength from the energy sector. With the likelihood of a U.S. recession before the end of 2012 now at 50 percent, we have to consider what a recession might look like for Texas. My expectation is that if we do see a U.S. recession, it will be less severe than 2008/2009. Texas would feel the drag of weaker energy and non-energy exports, but Texas would again be among the last in, and the first out, of a new recession."

As of this release, seasonal factors of the Texas Economic Activity Index have been updated, consistent with the annual revision process. The Texas Economic Activity Index equally weights eight, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity.  The eight indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, travel, and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays.  The Index levels represent a three-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility.  The Index is benchmarked so that 2008 equals 100.  A complete, revised historical series dating to 1997 is available upon request.

Comerica Bank is the commercial banking subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest U.S. banking company headquartered in Texas, and is strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank